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Risk of Ruin tells you the chance of losing everything. Max Drawdown tells you how much you will lose somewhere along the way.
Even winning players will face periods where they lose 20%, 30%, or even 50% of their bankroll from a previous peak. This calculator estimates the depth of these inevitable “downswings” so you can prepare mentally and financially.
Max Drawdown
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Why Calculate Drawdown?
Drawdown is the “pain tolerance” metric. If you know that a 3000 BB downswing is statistically normal for your win rate, you won’t panic and change your strategy when it happens.
The Variables
- Winrate (Drift): Higher win rates reduce the depth and duration of drawdowns.
- Standard Deviation (Volatility): The primary driver of drawdown depth. High variance games (like PLO or 100x leverage trading) have massive drawdowns.
- Sample Size: The longer you play, the higher the probability of encountering a “perfect storm” of bad luck, leading to a deeper absolute drawdown.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is a 20 buy-in downswing normal in poker?
Yes. For a standard winning player (5bb/100 winrate), a 20 buy-in downswing is a statistical certainty over a large sample size (e.g., 100k hands). Elite players with higher win rates suffer smaller downswings.