Whether you are looking at raffle tickets, loot box drop rates, or a longshot bet, seeing “1 out of 500” can be confusing. Is that impossible, or worth a shot?
The Math Breakdown
Percentage: 1 out of 500 equals exactly 0.2%.
Fraction: 1/500.
Decimal: 0.002.
What Does “1 in 500” Look Like in Gambling?
In the betting world, rarity equates to high payouts. If a bookmaker offers true “1 in 500” odds (with no house edge), here is what the numbers look like:
- Decimal Odds: 500.00
- Fractional Odds: 499/1 (499 to 1)
- American Odds: +49,900
A $10 bet at these odds would return $4,990 in profit.
Do you have a different set of odds and want to know the probability? Use our free Odds Converter & Probability Calculator to instantly translate betting lines into percentage chances.
The “Guarantee” Myth: 500 Tries
A common misconception is: “If the odds are 1 in 500, and I play 500 times, I am guaranteed to win once.”
This is mathematically false.
Probability doesn’t work like a checklist; it works like a dice roll. Every attempt is independent. Using the binomial distribution formula, we can calculate your actual chance of winning after 500 attempts:
The Math: 1 - (499/500)^500 ≈ 63.2%
If you try 500 times, you only have a 63.2% chance of winning at least once. This means there is still a 36.8% chance you lose every single time, even after 500 tries.
To see how likely you are to hit a losing streak like this, you can use our Winning/Losing Streak Calculator.
Real-World Comparisons
To visualize how rare 0.2% is, compare it to these real-world scenarios:
- Significantly rarer than guessing a coin flip (50%).
- Rarer than guessing a number on a Roulette wheel (1 in 37 or ~2.7%).
- Similar to picking one specific person out of a crowded movie theater.
- Much more likely than winning the lottery (1 in 300,000,000).
Summary
1 out of 500 is a rare event (0.2%). In gambling, it represents a massive longshot that pays heavily but loses 99.8% of the time. Never chase these odds assuming you are “due” for a win.