When we hear “1 in 5,000,” it sounds unlikely, but attainable. It is the mathematical definition of a “miracle” in the sports betting world, most famously associated with Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016.
The Math Breakdown
Percentage: 1 ÷ 5000 = 0.02%.
Fraction: 1/5000.
Decimal Odds: 5001.00.
What Does “1 in 5000” Pay in Betting?
In gambling, extreme rarity equals extreme payouts. If you place a bet at 5000 to 1 odds:
- $1 Bet Wins: $5,000.
- $10 Bet Wins: $50,000.
- $20 Bet Wins: $100,000.
In American Odds format, this would be written as +500,000. Do you have a longshot bet in mind? Use our Odds Converter to see exactly how much your stake would return at these massive odds.
Real-World Comparisons
To visualize 0.02%, compare it to these real-world probabilities:
- More likely than being struck by lightning in your lifetime (1 in 15,300).
- More likely than hitting a Hole-in-One for an amateur golfer (roughly 1 in 12,500).
- Less likely than flipping a coin and getting “Heads” 12 times in a row (1 in 4,096).
- Similar to picking the correct card out of 96 decks of cards combined.
The Leicester City Miracle
The most famous example of 1-in-5000 odds occurred in 2016. Bookmakers gave Leicester City, a small football club, 5000/1 odds to win the English Premier League.
To the shock of the world, they won. Bookmakers lost millions, and many stopped offering odds this high on sports outcomes, capping them lower (e.g., 1000/1). This event proved that even a 0.02% probability event can happen.
The “Guarantee” Myth
Just because something is “1 in 5000” doesn’t mean it will happen if you try 5,000 times. Probability is independent.
Using the binomial formula 1 - (4999/5000)^5000, we find that even after 5,000 attempts, there is still only a 63.2% chance of the event happening at least once. You could easily go 10,000 or 15,000 tries without a success.
If you are chasing rare events in gambling (like a specific slot jackpot), you can model these streaks using our Winning/Losing Streak Calculator.
Summary
1 in 5000 is a statistically rare event (0.02%). In betting, it represents the “once in a lifetime” windfall. While the payout of +500,000 is tempting, remember that 99.98% of the time, you will lose your stake.