Every bet has an Expected Value (EV). This is the average amount you will win or lose per bet over the long run. If the EV is positive, you are an “Advantage Player”. If it is negative, the “House” has an edge.
This tool is designed to analyze custom bets, lottery tickets, prop bets, or casino games where you know the probability and the payout.
Calculate EV and House Edge for any bet.
How to Calculate Gambling EV
To use this calculator effectively, you need two numbers:
- Win Probability (%): Your estimated chance of winning (e.g., 50% for a coin flip, 18/37 for Roulette).
- Payout Odds (Decimal): The total multiplier offered (e.g., 2.00).
The Logic
The calculator uses the standard formula:
EV = (Probability of Winning × Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)
Example:
- You bet $100 on a outcome with a 40% win chance.
- The payout is 2.20 ($120 Profit).
- Win Scenario: 40% chance to win $120 = +$48 value.
- Lose Scenario: 60% chance to lose $100 = -$60 cost.
- Net EV: $48 – $60 = -$12. (Negative EV).
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How do I find the “Win Probability”?
For casino games, probability is fixed by the rules (e.g., 1 in 37 for Roulette). For sports, probability is subjective; you must estimate it using stats or use the bookmaker’s Implied Probability (1 / Odds).
Can I calculate House Edge for any game?
Yes. If you know the True Odds (probability) and the Payout Odds, you can calculate the edge. The formula is: Edge = (True Odds - Payout Odds) * Probability.