A common question among gamblers is: “How much would it cost to guarantee a win?” or “How many tickets do I need to have a 50/50 shot at the jackpot?”
This Reverse Calculator answers that question. Be warned: the numbers are often shocking and demonstrate why the lottery is a “tax on people who are bad at math.”
[gc_ticket_estimator]
How to Use the Estimator
This tool calculates the volume of tickets required to reach a cumulative probability target.
- Game Format: Enter the Total Numbers (N) and Picks (K).
- Target Chance (%): What probability do you want to achieve? (e.g., 50% means a coin flip chance of winning).
- Ticket Price ($): The cost of a single entry.
- Result: The tool shows the number of tickets and the total financial cost.
Example: Chasing a 50% Chance
Let’s say you want a 50% chance of winning a standard 6/49 Lottery.
- Single Ticket Odds: 1 in 13,983,816.
- Tickets Needed for 50%: ~9,692,000 tickets.
- Cost (@ $2): ~$19,384,000.
The Trap: Even if the Jackpot is $20 Million, spending $19 Million to have only a 50% chance of winning it is a terrible financial decision (Negative EV).
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Can I buy enough tickets to guarantee a win?
Theoretically, yes, by buying every possible combination (Brute Force). Historically, some syndicates have done this when the jackpot exceeded the cost of all tickets. However, logistics (printing millions of tickets) and the risk of splitting the jackpot make this incredibly risky.
Why is the result labeled “Negative EV”?
Because the cost of buying enough tickets to have a high probability of winning almost always exceeds the prize money itself, especially after taxes and lump-sum reductions.