Most people buy scratch-offs based on the color or the theme. Smart players buy based on Math.
State lotteries publish data on “Prizes Remaining” for every game. Our Scratch Card Analyzer uses this data to calculate the current Expected Value (EV). If the top prizes are gone, the ticket is worthless. If the top prizes remain but most tickets are sold, the value skyrockets.
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How to Use the Analyzer
- Find Data: Go to your local lottery’s website and find the “Prizes Remaining” table for the game you want to play.
- Input Remaining Tickets: Enter the estimated number of tickets left in circulation.
- Input Prizes: Enter the number of remaining prizes for each tier (e.g., 2 prizes of $10,000).
- Calculate: The tool sums up the total available prize pool and divides it by the remaining tickets to find the real value of a single ticket.
Example: The “Zombie” Ticket
Game A: Costs $5. All jackpot prizes of $100,000 have been claimed. The remaining pool value is low.
EV: -$3.50. (Horrible bet).
Game B: Costs $5. All 3 Jackpots are still unclaimed, but 80% of the tickets have been sold. The prize pool is “rich” with money.
EV: +$1.20. (Positive Expectation!).
This calculator helps you identify “Game B” scenarios so you never waste money on “Zombie” tickets (Game A) where the big money is already gone.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How do I know how many tickets are remaining?
Lotteries don’t always list this explicitly. A common trick is to look at the “Free Ticket” prizes remaining. Since free tickets are distributed evenly, if 50% of free tickets are gone, roughly 50% of total tickets are gone.