Most lottery players look at the back of a ticket to see the “Odds of Winning.” However, those odds are only accurate on the day the game is printed. As tickets are sold and top prizes are claimed, the actual mathematical value of the game changes dramatically.
Professional players use a scratch ticket EV calculator to track these changes. By analyzing the remaining prizes against the estimated remaining tickets, you can find rare scenarios where a ticket is actually worth more than its purchase price. Use our free scratcher expected value calculator below to do the math instantly.
Scratch-Off Remaining Prizes EV
How to Use the Calculator
This scratch off expected value calculator (remaining prizes) requires data usually found on your state lottery’s official website. Here is how to use it:
- Find the Data: Go to your state lottery website and find the “Remaining Prizes” page for the specific game you want to analyze.
- Enter Ticket Cost: Input the price of one ticket (e.g., $20).
- Estimate Remaining Tickets: This is the most critical step.
- Method A: Some lotteries publish “% of tickets sold.” If 80% are sold, then 20% remain.
- Method B: Look at the small “break-even” prizes (e.g., free tickets or $20 wins). If 50% of those prizes are gone, it is safe to assume roughly 50% of the total tickets are gone.
- Input Top Prizes: Add the remaining quantities of the big jackpots (e.g., 2 prizes of $1,000,000 left). You don’t need to enter every small $5 prize; the big ones impact EV the most.
- Calculate: Click the button. The remaining prizes calculator lottery tool will show you the “True EV.”
Examples: When to Buy and When to Pass
Using a scratch off odds calculator remaining prizes tool helps you spot “Vulture” opportunities. Here is the difference between a bad bet and a great one.
Example 1: The “Dead” Game (Negative EV)
A $10 game has been on sale for a year. The data shows that all the $100,000 jackpots have been claimed, but 20% of the tickets are still for sale.
- Ticket Cost: $10.00
- Calculated EV: $4.50
- Verdict: Don’t Buy. You are paying $10 for a ticket mathematically worth less than $5.
Example 2: The “Positive” Game (+EV)
A $20 game is almost sold out. 90% of tickets are gone, but one $1 Million jackpot is still unclaimed. This is a statistical anomaly.
- Ticket Cost: $20.00
- Calculated EV: $26.80
- Verdict: Buy! This is a “+EV” situation. Mathematically, the ticket is worth more than you pay for it because the prize pool is so concentrated in the few remaining tickets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is “EV” in Scratch-Offs?
EV stands for Expected Value. It is the average amount of money you would get back if you played the game millions of times. If a $10 ticket has an EV of $7, the “House Edge” is $3. If the EV is $11, the player has the advantage.
How do I estimate the “Remaining Tickets”?
Since lotteries rarely list the exact number of unsold tickets, players use the “Rule of Proportions.” Look at the lowest prize tier (e.g., the $20 prizes). Since there are thousands of these, they deplete at the same rate as the total ticket supply. If 75% of the small prizes are gone, you can assume 75% of the total tickets are sold.
Does Positive EV guarantee a win?
No. A scratcher expected value calculator calculates the average value. Even if a ticket has +EV, the vast majority of tickets will still be losers. +EV simply means that in the long run, the math is in your favor.
Why is the “Remaining Prizes” method better?
Standard odds (printed on the back of the card) are static. The “Remaining Prizes” method is dynamic. It accounts for the fact that if a top prize is won early, the value of every remaining ticket drops instantly. Conversely, if top prizes remain late in the game, the value of the remaining tickets skyrockets.