You have Pocket Aces. Your opponent shoves with Kings. The pot is massive. Suddenly, the poker site offers you a “Cashout” or “Insurance” deal. Do you take the guaranteed money, or do you let the cards run?
This is one of the most expensive decisions a poker player makes. While taking insurance guarantees a payout, it almost always comes with a hidden fee (Vig). Our Poker Insurance Calculator reveals the true mathematical cost of these offers. It also visualizes “Running It Twice,” a strategy that lowers your variance without costing you a cent in expected value.
All-in Insurance EV
Cashout ToolRun It Twice (RIT) Analysis
How to Use the Calculator
This tool helps you make mathematically perfect decisions when facing an All-in situation. Here is how to analyze your options:
- Enter Pot Size: The total amount of money in the middle (e.g., $1,000).
- Input Your Equity: Your percentage chance of winning the hand.
- Tip: If you don’t know your exact equity, use the “Presets” buttons for common scenarios like “Overpair vs Lower” (82%) or “Coin Flip” (50%).
- Enter the Insurance Offer: Input the cash amount the casino or app is offering you to end the hand right now.
- Analyze the Results:
- Fair Value: This is what your hand is actually worth mathematically.
- Cost of Insurance: The difference between the Fair Value and the Offer. This is the “Fee” you are paying to avoid risk.
- Run It Twice Analysis: Scroll down to see how dealing the board two times changes your probability of winning, splitting, or losing, without reducing your average profit.
Related Tools: To calculate your equity in the first place, use a standard equity tool. To see how these decisions affect your long-term career, check the Poker Variance Calculator. If you are worried about going broke despite playing well, verify your bankroll with the Risk of Ruin Calculator.
Real-World Examples: The Price of Fear
Casinos prey on your fear of “Bad Beats.” Here is the math they don’t want you to see.
Example 1: The “Cashout” Fee
You have 80% Equity in a $1,000 Pot.
- Fair Value: Mathematically, you own $800 of that pot ($1,000 × 0.80).
- The Offer: The poker site offers you a “Cashout” of $760 instantly.
- The Trap: It feels good to lock in a win, but you just paid a $40 fee (5% of your equity). Over thousands of hands, giving away 5% of your winnings will destroy your win rate (ROI).
Example 2: Running It Twice (The Smart Move)
You are in the same situation (80% Equity, $1,000 Pot), but you choose to Run It Twice instead of taking insurance.
- The Cost: $0. (Most casinos/sites do not charge extra rake for this).
- The Variance: By dealing two boards, your chance of walking away with $0 drops from 20% to roughly 4%.
- The Verdict: You achieve the goal of reducing risk (variance) without paying the “Insurance Tax.”
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is All-in Insurance ever a good idea?
Mathematically, almost never. Insurance bets in poker (and Blackjack) always have a negative Expected Value (-EV) because the house charges a premium. The only exception is if you are playing with a bankroll that is far too small for the stakes (scared money), where losing the pot would mean you can no longer play.
Does “Running It Twice” change my Expected Value (EV)?
No. Running it twice, three times, or ten times does not change the amount of money you expect to win on average. If you are an 80% favorite, you will win 80% of the pot on average regardless of how many times you run it. It only reduces Variance (the swings), not the EV.
What is the typical fee for Poker Cashouts?
Online poker sites (like GGPoker or PokerStars) typically charge a fee of 1% of the pot (deducted from your equity) for using the Cashout feature. While 1% sounds small, it is huge in terms of win rate. If your equity is small, the effective fee percentage can be much higher.