When you bet as a bluff, you don’t need to win the showdown to make money; you just need your opponent to fold often enough. This is called the Break-Even Point.
This calculator determines exactly what percentage of the time your opponent must fold for your bet to be +EV (Positive Expected Value). It is essential for optimizing semi-bluffs.
Bluff Break-Even
How to Use the Calculator
- Pot Size: Money currently in the middle.
- Bet Size: How much you are risking on the bluff.
- Hand Equity (%): Do you have a draw? (e.g., Flush Draw ~20%). Enter 0 for a “Stone Cold” bluff.
The Power of Semi-Bluffs
Scenario: Pot is $100. You bet $50.
- Pure Bluff (0% Equity): Your opponent must fold 33% of the time for you to break even.
- Semi-Bluff (25% Equity): If you have a decent draw, the calculator shows your opponent only needs to fold ~11% of the time!
This math proves why betting with draws (Semi-Bluffing) is so powerful: you have two ways to win, lowering the requirement for Fold Equity.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the formula for Pure Bluff EV?
Required % = Bet / (Pot + Bet). For example, a half-pot bet ($50 into $100) requires 33% folds. A pot-sized bet ($100 into $100) requires 50% folds.