In a cash game, a chip is always worth a chip. If you have 51% equity, you call. In a poker tournament, however, chips do not equal dollars.
On a Final Table or a Bubble, losing 10,000 chips hurts your bankroll significantly more than winning 10,000 chips helps it. This asymmetry is known as ICM (Independent Chip Model). Our ICM Push/Fold Calculator goes beyond simple “Nash Charts.” It calculates the exact Bubble Factor of a specific spot, telling you exactly how much equity you need to make a profitable call or shove against a specific opponent.
ICM Pressure Calculator
Push/Fold AnalyzerHow to Use the Calculator
This tool is designed to analyze specific high-pressure spots, such as final tables or satellites. Here is how to interpret the data:
- Enter Payouts: Input the prize money for the next 3 positions (e.g., 1st: $5000, 2nd: $3000, 3rd: $2000). The steepness of these payouts determines the pressure.
- Enter Stacks: Input the chip counts for up to 4 players.
- Select Scenario (Hero vs. Villain):
- Select which player is HERO (You).
- Select which player is VILLAIN (The opponent shoving into you or the one you are shoving into).
- Analyze the “Bubble Factor”:
- BF 1.0 – 1.2: Low pressure. Play near standard ChipEV ranges.
- BF 1.3 – 1.8: High pressure. You need a premium hand to continue.
- BF > 2.0: Extreme pressure (Satellite mode). Fold almost everything except Aces.
- Check “Required Equity”: The tool calculates the raw percentage you need to break even. If it says 60%, you cannot call with a pair of 2s (approx 50% vs random cards) because the risk is too high.
Related Tools: If you are in the early stages of a tournament where ICM implies less pressure, use our standard Nash Push/Fold Charts (ChipEV). To calculate the generic monetary value of your stack without analyzing a specific collision, use the ICM Equity Calculator. For raw hand-vs-hand percentages, use the Hold’em Odds Calculator.
Real-World Examples: The Cost of Calling
Why do pros fold `Ace-King` preflop on final tables? The Bubble Factor explains why.
Example 1: Mid-Stack vs. Big Stack (The Death Zone)
Scenario: You are 2nd in chips. The Chip Leader goes All-In.
- The Math: If you call and win, you become the Chip Leader (but you don’t win the tournament yet). If you call and lose, you are out in Xth place.
- The Result: Your Bubble Factor might be 1.8. This means you need roughly 64% equity to call.
- The Trap: `AKo` is only about 60% against a wide shoving range. Mathematically, you must fold AK because the risk of busting outweighs the reward of doubling up.
Example 2: Big Stack vs. Short Stack (Bullying)
Scenario: You are the Chip Leader. You shove into a Short Stack.
- The Math: Your Bubble Factor is low (near 1.0) because losing the pot doesn’t bust you. The Short Stack’s Bubble Factor is high.
- The Strategy: You can shove any two cards. The Short Stack is mathematically forced to fold 80% of their hands due to ICM pressure. This allows you to print money by stealing their blinds.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is “Bubble Factor”?
Bubble Factor is the ratio of how much tournament equity you lose if you bust versus how much you gain if you double up. If losing 1 chip hurts twice as much as gaining 1 chip helps, your Bubble Factor is 2.0.
When should I ignore ICM?
You should largely ignore ICM in the early stages of a tournament, or in “Winner Take All” formats (like Spin & Gos). In these situations, ChipEV (Chip Expected Value) is king, and you should take any edge you can find.
How does this differ from the Nash Equilibrium Chart?
Most basic Nash Charts are based on ChipEV (cEV), which assumes 1 chip = $1. They are perfect for heads-up play or early stages. This calculator uses $EV (Dollar Expected Value), which accounts for the prize pool distribution and is essential for final table decisions.