Pot-Limit Omaha (PLO) is often called “The Great Game,” but it is also known for its brutal volatility. Because equities in PLO run much closer together than in Hold’em (60/40 flips are the norm), the variance is significantly higher.
It is not uncommon for a winning player to go on massive downswings or break-even stretches over tens of thousands of hands. Use our free PLO Variance Calculator below to visualize the “Best Case” and “Worst Case” scenarios for your winrate and sample size.
How to Use the Calculator
This tool calculates the 95% Confidence Interval for your results. This means that 95% of the time, your actual winnings will fall somewhere between the “Lower” and “Upper” bounds shown.
- Enter Winrate (bb/100): Input your expected winrate in big blinds per 100 hands. If you aren’t sure, 5 bb/100 is a solid benchmark for a winning low-stakes player.
- Enter Standard Deviation (Std Dev): This measures how “swingy” your game is.
- 120-140: Tight/Passive PLO style.
- 140-160: Standard Aggressive PLO style (Most Common).
- 160+: Very Loose/Aggressive style.
- Enter Hands Played: The sample size you want to simulate (e.g., 10,000 for a week of grind, or 100,000 for a long-term view).
Understanding PLO Swings: Real Examples
Why is this calculator useful? It helps you distinguish between “running bad” and “playing bad.” Here are examples of how variance looks in Omaha compared to Hold’em.
Example 1: The Short Term (10,000 Hands)
Let’s say you are a solid winner with a 5 bb/100 winrate and a standard 150 Std Dev.
- Expected Winnings: +500 bb.
- 95% Confidence Interval: You could be up +3,500 bb (Crushing it) OR you could be down -2,500 bb (Stuck 25 buy-ins).
Takeaway: Even a winning player can easily lose 25 buy-ins over 10k hands purely due to luck.
Example 2: The Long Term (100,000 Hands)
Over a larger sample, the variance smooths out, but the absolute numbers get larger.
- Expected Winnings: +5,000 bb.
- Worst Case (Lower Bound): -4,480 bb.
Takeaway: Even over 100k hands, there is a small statistical chance for a 5bb/100 winner to break even or be slightly stuck. This is why bankroll management is critical in PLO.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a normal Standard Deviation in PLO?
In No-Limit Hold’em, a standard deviation of 80-100 bb/100 is common. In PLO, due to the number of multi-way pots and close equity matchups, the standard deviation is typically between 140 and 160 bb/100. If you play a very high-variance style, it can exceed 170.
How many buy-ins do I need for PLO?
Because of the higher variance shown in this calculator, the recommended bankroll for PLO is significantly larger than NLHE. While 30-40 buy-ins might suffice for Hold’em, most professional PLO players recommend a minimum of 50 to 100 buy-ins to withstand standard downswings without moving down in stakes.
Why is PLO variance higher than Hold’em?
In Hold’em, it is common to get your money in with a massive advantage (e.g., AA vs KK is 80% vs 20%). In PLO, “dominating” situations are rare. Even AAxx vs a random hand might only be a 65% favorite. When you run equities that are constantly 60/40 or 55/45, the short-term results fluctuate wildly, creating high variance.
What does the “95% Confidence Interval” mean?
It means that if you played this specific 100,000-hand scenario 20 times, your results would fall within the predicted range 19 times. It essentially shows you the “Normal” range of luck. If your results are below the Lower Bound, you are running exceptionally bad (or your winrate is lower than you think).