Poker isn’t just about the cards you hold; it’s about how you play them. Sometimes, betting with a drawing hand is more profitable than checking because of Fold Equity—the chance your opponent folds.
This Postflop EV Calculator allows you to model a specific scenario to see if an aggressive line (Betting) yields a higher Expected Value than a passive line (Checking).
How to Use the EV Calculator
- Pot Size ($): Current money in the middle.
- Bet Size ($): How much you plan to bet.
- Hand Equity (%): Your chance of winning at showdown if called (e.g., 35% for a Flush Draw).
- Fold Equity (%): How often you think the opponent will fold to your bet.
- Compare: The tool calculates the EV of Betting vs. Checking.
- If EV(Bet) > EV(Check), aggression is the correct play.
Example: The Semi-Bluff Shove
You have a Flush Draw (35% equity) on the Turn. Pot is $100. You consider shoving for $100.
- If you Check, you realize your equity passively (EV ~$35).
- If you Bet, and your opponent folds 40% of the time:
- You win $100 instantly 40% of the time.
- You still win the showdown 35% of the time when called.
The calculator combines these factors. Often, adding Fold Equity makes the bet +EV, even if you are currently behind in hand strength.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Fold Equity?
Fold Equity is the extra value you gain from the probability that your opponent folds to your bet. It allows you to win pots you would otherwise lose at showdown.
How do I estimate Fold Equity?
This requires reading your opponent. Is he playing tight? Does the board texture scare him (e.g., an Ace hits)? If he folds often, your Fold Equity is high.