Lottery SNGs (like PokerStars Spin & Go, iPoker Twister, or GG Spin & Gold) are the highest variance format in poker. Because the prize pool is randomized, you can play perfectly and still lose money over thousands of games simply by running bad on multipliers.
This Spin & Go Variance Calculator uses standard deviation modeling to show you the range of possible outcomes, helping you distinguish between a bad strategy and simple bad luck.
How to Use the Variance Calculator
To get accurate results, you need to know your realistic win rate.
- Buy-in ($): The cost to enter a single tournament.
- Est. ROI (%): Your expected Return On Investment.
- 0-2%: Average Reg.
- 3-5%: Strong Winner.
- 5%+: Elite Crusher (Rare in high stakes).
- Game Volume: How many tournaments do you plan to play? (e.g., 2,000).
- Analyze: The tool calculates the Best Case and Worst Case scenarios based on a 95% confidence interval.
Example: The Cruel Reality of Spins
Imagine you are a winning player with a 3% ROI playing $10 Spins. You plan to play 1,000 games.
- Expected Profit: $300.
- Worst Case Scenario: -$1,200 (Loss).
Wait, how can a winning player lose money? In Spin & Gos, if you never hit a multiplier above 2x or 4x over a small sample, you will lose money even if you win most of your chips. This calculator helps you visualize that risk and prepare a deep bankroll (usually 200+ buy-ins) to absorb it.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is Spin & Go variance so high?
In standard tournaments, the payouts are fixed. In Spins, the prize pool is random. A significant portion of the RTP is locked in the rare 100x+ multipliers. If you don’t hit them (or hit them and lose), your short-term variance is massive compared to normal Sit & Gos.
What is a safe bankroll for Spins?
Standard advice is 200 to 300 Buy-ins for professional players. Recreational players can stick to 50-100 BI, but they face a high Risk of Ruin.