Even a winning poker player can lose money over 50,000 hands. This is called Variance. It is the enemy of your mindset.
Our Variance Simulator helps you distinguish between “running bad” and “playing bad.” It calculates the mathematical range of possible outcomes based on your winrate and playing style (Standard Deviation).
Variance Sim
How to Use the Variance Simulator
- Winrate (bb/100): Your expected edge (e.g., 5 bb/100).
- Std Dev (bb/100): Your playing style volatility.
- 70-80: Tight Passive / Full Ring.
- 90-100: Standard TAG / 6-Max.
- 120+: Loose Aggressive / PLO.
- Hands: The sample size (e.g., 50,000).
- Analyze the Graph Data:
- Confidence Interval: The tool shows the “Best Case” and “Worst Case” scenarios (95% probability). If your actual results are below the “Worst Case,” you are likely overestimating your winrate.
- Bankroll Buffer: It suggests a bankroll size needed to withstand purely mathematical downswings.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a standard downswing?
For a solid winning player (5bb/100), a 20 buy-in downswing is standard. A 50 buy-in downswing is rare but mathematically possible. The lower your winrate, the larger and longer your downswings will be.