In poker, you can play perfectly and still lose money for weeks or even months. This is called Variance. Understanding it is the single most important factor in maintaining a healthy bankroll and a healthy mindset.
While standard calculators use simple formulas to give you a “theoretical” range, our Monte Carlo Poker Simulator actually plays out thousands of simulated careers based on your winrate. It visualizes potential futures, showing you not just what you should win, but the brutal reality of potential downswings and the likelihood of running below EV.
Poker Variance Simulator
Monte CarloHow to Use the Calculator
This tool runs 1,000 independent simulations to generate a probability map of your poker results. Here is how to configure it:
1. Winrate (BB/100)
Enter your expected winrate in Big Blinds per 100 hands.
- 2.5 – 4.0 bb/100: A solid winning player.
- 5.0 – 8.0 bb/100: A crusher (very high winrate).
- Note: Be realistic. Overestimating your winrate will give you false confidence regarding safe bankroll requirements.
2. Standard Deviation (Std Dev)
This measures the “swinginess” of your game.
- NLHE (6-max): Typically 80-100 bb/100.
- PLO (Omaha): Typically 120-160 bb/100 (Much higher variance).
3. Hands to Simulate
Enter the volume you plan to play (e.g., 50,000 for a month of grinding, or 100,000 for a long-term view).
4. Interpreting the Results
- The Graph: Shows 20 random samples. If many lines dip below zero, your risk of ruin is high.
- Downswing Probabilities: The most vital section. It tells you the % chance of losing 20+ or 50+ buy-ins. If the simulator says there is a 30% chance of a 50-buy-in downswing, you need a bankroll larger than 50 buy-ins to survive.
Related Tools: To manage your bankroll size based on your edge, use our Kelly Criterion Calculator. To understand the raw probability of individual events, check the Odds Converter Tool.
Real-World Examples: The Reality of Grinding
Many players quit poker because they think they are “cursed,” when in reality, they are just experiencing standard deviation.
Example 1: The “Solid” Grinder (NLHE)
You are a winning player with a winrate of 3 bb/100 over 100,000 hands.
- Simulation: The graph shows that while you are overwhelmingly likely to be profitable, there is a roughly 15% chance you will be breakeven or losing after 50,000 hands.
- Lesson: Even good players can waste months without making money. This helps you mentally prepare for dry spells.
Example 2: The Omaha Rollercoaster (PLO)
You switch to PLO. Your winrate is higher (6 bb/100), but your Std Dev is 140.
- Simulation: Despite the high winrate, the simulator shows a 30% chance of a 40+ Buy-in downswing.
- Lesson: You need a much deeper bankroll for PLO. A standard 30 BI bankroll (which is fine for NLHE) would likely result in you going broke in PLO, despite being a winning player.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why does the graph change every time I click “Run”?
This is a Monte Carlo simulation. It uses random number generation to create unique “lifelines” every time, simulating the randomness of dealing cards. By running it multiple times, you get a better feel for the range of possible outcomes.
What is a “Downswing”?
A downswing is the difference between your bankroll’s peak and its current low point. If you reach $5,000, drop to $3,000, and climb back to $4,000, your current downswing is $2,000 ($5k – $3k).
How many hands is “The Long Run”?
In modern online poker, 10,000 hands is considered a very short term. To have a 95% confidence interval that accurately reflects your true winrate, you typically need a sample size of at least 100,000 to 200,000 hands.
Does this calculator apply to Tournaments (MTTs)?
No. This simulator is designed for Cash Games (NLHE, PLO, Limit). Tournament variance is significantly higher due to field sizes and payout structures. MTT variance requires a different model.