Baccarat is the favorite game of high rollers for a reason: it has one of the lowest House Edges in the casino. However, it also features “Side Bets” (like Tie or Pairs) that have some of the worst odds in the industry.
Our Baccarat EV Calculator exposes the truth. Compare the mathematical cost of betting on the Banker versus taking a risk on a Side Bet.
The Math of Baccarat
Unlike Blackjack, Baccarat is not a game of skill. It is a game of pure probability determined by fixed drawing rules.
The “Big Three” Bets
- Banker: Wins 45.86% of the time. Even with the 5% commission, the House Edge is only 1.06%. This is mathematically the best bet.
- Player: Wins 44.62% of the time. House Edge is 1.24%. A solid bet, but slightly worse than Banker.
- Tie: Pays 8:1 but wins only 9.5% of the time. The House Edge is a massive 14.36%. Betting on the Tie is mathematically disastrous.
The Danger of Side Bets
Many casinos offer “Perfect Pair” or “Dragon Bonus” bets. While the payouts (up to 30:1) are tempting, the House Edge on these wagers often exceeds 10%. Our calculator will show you how much EV you lose by chasing these longshots.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why does the Banker bet have a commission?
Because the Banker acts last, it has a positional advantage and wins more often than the Player (more than 50% of non-tie hands). Without the 5% commission, the player would have an edge over the casino, which the house cannot allow.
Does “Pattern Spotting” (Roads) work?
No. Baccarat scoreboards (Big Road, Bead Plate) engage the “Gambler’s Fallacy.” Previous hands have zero influence on the next hand. The math remains constant every deal.