The Match Winner market, often referred to as the Moneyline, is the most popular way to bet on tennis. Unlike many other sports, tennis cannot end in a draw, making it a “2-way” market. However, the odds you see at a sportsbook don’t represent the true probability of an outcome because they include a hidden fee known as the bookmaker’s margin or overround.
Our Tennis Match Winner Calculator helps you peel back the curtain. By entering the odds for both players, you can instantly see the “Fair Probability” of each athlete winning and exactly how much commission the bookmaker is charging for the bet.
Tennis Match Winner Odds
How to Use the Calculator
This tool is essential for identifying “value” in the tennis markets. Follow these steps to analyze any match from the ATP, WTA, or ITF circuits:
- Enter Player 1 Odds: Input the decimal odds for the first player (e.g., 1.57).
- Enter Player 2 Odds: Input the decimal odds for the second player (e.g., 2.45).
- Review the Win Chance: The calculator will show the Fair Probability. This is the real statistical chance of each player winning once the bookmaker’s margin is removed.
- Check the Margin: Look at the Overround. In top-tier ATP matches, this is usually 3-5%. In smaller ITF tournaments, it can climb as high as 10% or more.
To build more complex tennis bets, you might also find our Accumulator Odds Calculator useful for parlaying multiple match winners into one ticket.
Practical Betting Examples
Understanding the difference between implied odds and fair probability is the key to long-term success in tennis betting. Let’s look at two scenarios:
Example 1: The Tight ATP Match
Consider a match between two evenly matched players where the odds are 1.90 vs 1.90.
- The Margin: The bookmaker has an overround of 5.26%.
- Fair Probability: Both players have exactly a 50% chance to win.
- Betting Insight: If your own analysis suggests Player 1 has a 55% chance, the 1.90 odds represent “Value.”
Example 2: The Heavy Favorite
Imagine a Grand Slam match where the favorite is at 1.10 and the underdog is at 7.50.
- The Margin: The overround here is 4.24%.
- Fair Probability: The favorite has an 87.2% win chance, while the underdog has 12.8%.
- Betting Insight: Large favorites often have lower margins, but the “risk vs. reward” ratio is much thinner.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a “2-Way” market in tennis?
Because tennis matches cannot end in a tie, there are only two possible outcomes: Player A wins or Player B wins. This makes the Match Winner market a “2-way” market, which is generally easier to calculate than 3-way markets (like Football/Soccer).
What happens to my Match Winner bet if a player retires?
This depends entirely on your sportsbook’s Retirement Rules. Some settle the bet if one set is completed, others require the full match to be finished. We recommend checking our Tennis Retirement Rules Guide for specific bookmaker policies.
How do I find a “Value Bet” in tennis?
A value bet occurs when the Fair Probability calculated by our tool is lower than the probability you have calculated based on your own research. If you think a player has a 60% chance to win, but the odds only imply a 50% chance, you have found value.