Multi-Leg bets (like the Pick 6 in horse racing or a 6-fold Accumulator in sports) offer life-changing jackpots for small stakes. However, they are “Traps of Probability.”
This calculator helps you stay grounded. By inputting your confidence level (win probability) for each leg, it calculates the cumulative mathematical likelihood of your ticket winning.
The “50% Confidence” Trap
Many bettors look at a Pick 6 card and think: “I’ve picked 6 favorites. They all have a 50/50 chance. I have a good shot!”
Let’s do the math using the calculator:
- Leg 1 to 6: 50% Probability each.
- Math: 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.0156
Result: Your “strong” ticket has only a 1.56% chance of winning. This explains why Pick 6 jackpots often roll over for weeks.
How to Use This Tool
- Input Probabilities: Be honest. If a race is a toss-up, put 33% or 50%. If you have a “Lock,” put 80% or 90%.
- Total Stake: Enter how much the ticket costs.
- Fair Odds: The tool calculates what the payout should be to break even. If the pool payout is likely to be lower than the “Fair Odds,” the bet has Negative EV.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a “Key” or “Banker” in Pick 6?
To afford a Pick 6 ticket, you usually need to “Key” (Single select) one or two races. This dramatically lowers the cost, but if your Key loses, the entire ticket is dead instantly.