In fixed-odds betting, you play against the bookmaker. In Pool (Tote/Parimutuel) betting, you play against the crowd. The crowd is often irrational, over-betting favorites and leaving massive value on other runners.
This is called an Overlay—when the potential payout of a horse is mathematically higher than its true chance of winning. Our calculator scans the pool data to highlight these +EV opportunities.
| # | Bet $ | Prob % | Res |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | - | ||
| 2 | - |
How to Find Overlays
To use this tool effectively, you need to estimate the “True Probability” of a horse winning (using your own handicapping) and compare it to the “Pool Probability.”
- Total Pool ($): The total amount of money wagered on the race (Win Pool).
- Takeout (%): The commission the track keeps (usually 15-20%).
- Money Bet ($): The specific amount currently wagered on the horse you are analyzing.
- My Prob (%): Your calculated chance of the horse winning.
- Result: If the calculator highlights the row in Green, you have found an Overlay. The pool is underestimating this runner.
Example: The Over-Bet Favorite
Imagine a race with a $10,000 Net Pool.
- Horse A (The Crowd Favorite): $6,000 wagered. Dividend: $1.66. Implied Odds: ~60%.
- Horse B (The Value): $2,000 wagered. Dividend: $5.00. Implied Odds: 20%.
If your analysis says Horse B actually has a 30% chance to win, this is a massive Overlay. The pool pays you like a 20% shot, but you win 30% of the time.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is “Takeout”?
Takeout is the “House Edge” of pool betting. It is the percentage of the total pool deducted by the operator for taxes and expenses before dividends are paid. Beating a 15% takeout requires significant skill.
Do pool odds change?
Yes, constantly. Unlike fixed-odds, your dividend is determined by the pool state at the moment the race starts (the jump). An overlay you see 10 minutes before the race might disappear if “Smart Money” floods in late.