A “Win to Nil” bet requires your team to win and keep a clean sheet (e.g., 1-0, 2-0, 3-0). It is a high-reward market, but bookmakers often charge a massive margin (vig) on it.
Often, it is mathematically more profitable to place individual bets on the Correct Scores (1-0, 2-0, etc.) that make up a “Win to Nil” scenario. This tool calculates which method pays more.
How to Beat the “Lazy” Market
Bookmakers know that most players prefer clicking one button (“Win to Nil”) rather than placing 3 or 4 separate bets. They charge a “convenience fee” for this.
Example Calculation
- Bookie Offer (Win to Nil): Odds 2.80.
- Dutching Correct Scores (1-0, 2-0, 3-0): By splitting your stake across these scores, you might achieve effective odds of 3.10.
In this scenario, creating your own “Synthetic Win to Nil” pays 10% more for the exact same outcome. This calculator does the math instantly to show you the hidden arbitrage.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What if the team wins 5-0?
If you bet the standard “Win to Nil” market, you win. If you Dutched only 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 4-0, you would lose. However, scores of 5-0 or higher are statistically rare. You can choose to add 5-0 to your Dutching list, but it will slightly lower your effective odds.