Use this Win to Nil calculator to estimate a team’s chance of winning without conceding, compare a direct price with a final Bet Builder quote, or split stakes across selected correct scores. The probability mode uses your projected goals; price modes show returns and coverage. A higher quoted payout does not by itself establish a profitable bet.
Estimate probabilities or compare quoted prices
Example prices are illustrative. Enter your own quotes and check matching settlement rules.
| Score | Odds | Stake | Return | Portfolio net profit |
|---|
What went wrong?
How to use the Win to Nil calculator
- Choose a mode. Estimate probabilities from expected goals, compare two quotes on the same outcome, allocate a correct-score stake, or inspect the ratio between match-win odds and the direct quote.
- Enter decimal odds. In price comparison mode, use the final combined Bet Builder price shown on the betslip. Do not multiply the standalone win and clean-sheet prices.
- Use one total stake. Returns include the original stake; net profit subtracts it. The two methods are alternatives, each using that total.
- Check coverage and settlement. Compare the same team, match and time period. In correct-score mode, a blank field means that score is excluded.
The price modes handle ordinary cash back bets before commission, fees and promotional adjustments. Free bets, lay liability, cash-out, void selections and operator-specific payout rules require separate calculations. Probability mode needs only projected goals; it does not require a stake or market quote.
Win to Nil vs clean sheet: what actually wins?
The bet wins when the selected team wins the match and concedes no goals. A clean sheet alone also includes a 0–0 draw. The table uses home–away score notation and assumes the home team is selected.
| Final score | Home win without conceding | Home clean sheet | Home win + BTTS No |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | Loses | Wins | Loses |
| 1–0 or 2–0 | Wins | Wins | Wins |
| 5–0 | Wins | Wins | Wins |
| 2–1 | Loses | Loses | Loses |
| 0–1 | Loses | Loses | Loses |
For an away selection, reverse the score notation: 0–1, 0–2 and higher away wins without conceding qualify. An either-team version is a different market because either side can satisfy it.
For a broader explanation, including why winning both halves is a separate condition, read our guide to clean-sheet wins and winning both halves.
Estimate the fair price from expected goals
The Win to Nil calculator also provides a baseline probability model. Select Probability from expected goals and enter the projected goal means for the home and away teams over the same full match period. These inputs are forecasts, not the current score or the shot xG recorded so far in a live match.
For independent Poisson goal counts with means λh and λa, the probability of scoring zero is e−λ. Therefore:
- Home win without conceding:
(1 − e−λh) × e−λa. - Away win without conceding:
(1 − e−λa) × e−λh. - Fair decimal odds under this model:
1 / probability.
| Projected goals: home / away | Home probability | Home fair odds | Away probability | Away fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 / 0.90 | 33.94% | 2.9467 | 9.81% | 10.1944 |
| 1.20 / 1.20 | 21.05% | 4.7511 | 21.05% | 4.7511 |
| 2.50 / 0.50 | 55.67% | 1.7962 | 3.23% | 30.9617 |
In the first row, (1 − e−1.8) × e−0.9 = 0.339364…. Invert the unrounded probability to obtain the fair odds. The 0–0 draw is excluded from both winning events. The formulas include every positive goal count, so there is no missing high-score tail in this mode.
Fair means margin-free within the assumptions, not a verified assessment of a particular match. Independent goals and constant scoring rates are a simplification; the tool does not adjust for game state or uncertainty in your projected means. No Dixon–Coles adjustment is applied.
The correct-score tool and expected-goals input guide explain how to construct match projections. They do not supply verified forecasts for you. That page describes a Dixon–Coles correction in its matrix, so its results need not match this independent model.
A zero goal mean makes that team score zero with certainty inside the model. Its chance of winning is then zero and no finite fair decimal odds exist. Treat this as a mathematical boundary case, not a claim about a real team’s prospects.
Compare the direct price with a Bet Builder quote
For the same selected team, “match winner + that team to keep a clean sheet” and “match winner + BTTS No” describe the Win to Nil event when their settlement rules match. Use an actual offered combined price: related selections are not independent, and a bookmaker may reprice or reject the combination.
Suppose the direct quote is 2.80, the final Bet Builder quote is 3.10, and the stake is 100 units.
| Alternative | Return if it wins | Net profit if it wins | Loss if it loses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct quote: 2.80 | 280.00 | 180.00 | 100.00 |
| Combined quote: 3.10 | 310.00 | 210.00 | 100.00 |
The combined quote returns 30 more units if the event happens. That is 10.71% more gross return, calculated as 3.10 / 2.80 − 1. It is not a 10.71 percentage-point increase in win probability. Both alternatives still lose at 0–0 or if the selected team concedes.
Correct-score dutching: higher payout can mean narrower coverage
Dutching divides one total stake across mutually exclusive outcomes so their theoretical gross returns are equal. Enter the prices for the selected team’s 1–0 through 6–0 wins, leaving any unwanted or unavailable scores blank.
Consider a 100-unit stake covering 1–0 at 6.00, 2–0 at 10.00, 3–0 at 20.00 and 4–0 at 40.00. Before rounding, the synthetic decimal odds are approximately 2.9268.
| Score | Decimal odds | Rounded stake | Gross return if this score wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 6.00 | 48.78 | 292.68 |
| 2–0 | 10.00 | 29.27 | 292.70 |
| 3–0 | 20.00 | 14.63 | 292.60 |
| 4–0 | 40.00 | 7.32 | 292.80 |
These stakes total 100.00. On the four covered scores, gross return exceeds the 280.00 return from a direct quote of 2.80. At 5–0, however, the dutching portfolio loses all 100 units while the direct bet returns 280. The two bets do not cover the same event.
Adding 5–0 or 6–0 expands coverage but reduces the theoretical equal-return odds. It still leaves higher scores uncovered. A generic “any other home win” selection may include scores where both teams score; it cannot automatically be treated as a missing Win to Nil tail. This tool therefore accepts individual scores and labels the portfolio as partial coverage.
How the stake calculation works
For the selected correct-score decimal prices dᵢ, first calculate Q = Σ(1 / dᵢ). With total stake S:
- Synthetic decimal odds:
D = 1 / Q. - Stake on score i:
sᵢ = S / (dᵢ × Q). - Equal gross return before rounding:
R = S / Q. - Portfolio net profit on a selected score: that score’s gross return minus the entire portfolio stake S.
The displayed allocations use increments of 0.01 units. The tool rounds each allocation down, then distributes remaining increments to the largest fractional remainders. It recalculates each outcome’s return from those stakes; small differences are expected. This rounding rule preserves the total stake but does not optimize allocations for a bookmaker’s minimum stake or payout rounding.
Q is a sum of reciprocals of offered prices, not a margin-free estimate of the probability of winning to nil. It covers only the entered scores. Neither it nor D establishes fair odds for the full market.
What does the odds-ratio diagnostic mean?
The third mode calculates match-win odds / Win to Nil odds. At 1.50 and 2.50, the result is 60%. Algebraically, this is the ratio of the two raw implied probabilities: (1 / 2.50) / (1 / 1.50).
If both prices were coherent fair odds for the same event and period, this ratio would be P(clean sheet | team wins). It would describe clean sheets conditional on a win, not the team’s overall clean-sheet probability. Real quotes can contain different margins, so the calculator labels the result as a raw ratio. A ratio above 100% signals that the entered prices cannot both represent coherent fair probabilities.
Why this is not an arbitrage test
Buying the higher of two prices on the same event does not cover its losing outcomes. Likewise, dutching a selection of winning scores leaves draws, defeats and omitted wins exposed. To evaluate a fully covered set of mutually exclusive outcomes, use the arbitrage calculator and check that every outcome is included under matching rules.
The quote modes compare payouts without estimating true probabilities or removing bookmaker margin. The expected-goals mode gives model probabilities from your inputs; it does not establish that a quoted bet has positive expected value.
Frequently asked questions
Does a goalless draw win this bet?
No. Neither team wins. A team clean-sheet bet can win at 0–0, which is why its coverage differs.
Can I multiply match-win odds by clean-sheet odds?
Not to reconstruct a valid Bet Builder quote. The events are related. Enter the actual combined price offered for the selections on the same betslip.
Does the calculator cover every winning score?
The direct market comparison assumes the full clean-sheet win event. The probability formula also includes all positive goal counts. Correct-score dutching covers only listed scores receiving positive stakes. Even selecting all six available score fields leaves 7–0 and higher wins uncovered.
Do extra-time goals count?
Check the market rules. Standard football match markets commonly use 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A full-time market and an extra-time market cannot be compared as the same event.
Can the rounded allocation leave a score with no stake?
Yes, for a sufficiently small total or uneven prices. The tool warns when an entered score receives 0.00 and excludes it from the list of covered scores. Check operator minimum stakes before using an allocation.
Model reference and settlement
The NIST reference for the Poisson distribution gives the probability mass function used to derive the zero-goal formulas above. It describes the distribution, not evidence that a specific football match follows it.
Your bookmaker’s market rules determine the applicable period and treatment of interrupted or void markets. Check those rules directly; the calculator cannot verify them.