Craps Strategy Simulator & System Tester

Craps players are famous for their “systems.” From the hedge-heavy Iron Cross to the aggressive 3-Point Molly, every player believes they have found a way to beat the dice.

But in the long run, math always prevails. The only way to truly understand a strategy is to simulate it over thousands of rolls. Our Craps Strategy Simulator runs a Monte Carlo analysis on the most popular betting systems, showing you not just how much you might win on a lucky night, but the Risk of Ruin and the massive Drawdowns you must survive to get there.

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How to Use the Craps Simulator

This tool mimics the volatility of a real casino session. Instead of rolling dice manually for hours, you can run 1,000 sessions in seconds. Here is how to set it up:

1. Select a Strategy: Choose the system you want to test.
   • Pass Line + Odds: The mathematical standard.
   • Iron Cross: A “cover the board” strategy for maximum action.
   • 3-Point Molly: An aggressive approach designed to capitalize on hot shooters.
2. Set Your Bankroll: Enter the total amount of money you are willing to lose in a single session (e.g., $500 or $1,000).
3. Define the Session Length: Input the number of “Shooters.” A typical hour at a live table sees about 20 shooters.
4. Analyze the Metrics:
   • Median Profit: The most likely outcome.
   • Risk of Ruin: The percentage of sessions where you lost your entire bankroll.
   • Avg Drawdown: The average depth of the “hole” you had to dig yourself out of.

Related Tools: If you are confused about the payouts for specific numbers, check the Craps Payout Calculator. To determine the optimal bet size for your bankroll, use the Kelly Criterion Calculator.

Real-World Examples: System Volatility

Different strategies produce wildly different bankroll curves. Here is what the simulation reveals about popular systems.

Example 1: The “Iron Cross” Grind

You bet on the Field, Place 5, Place 6, and Place 8. You win on every roll except a 7.

• The Simulation: You will see a graph that steadily ticks upward with many small wins.
• The Crash: When a “Seven Out” hits, you lose four bets simultaneously. The simulator often shows that while this strategy feels like winning, the House Edge on the Field bet slowly eats away your profits, leading to a high long-term loss rate.

Example 2: The “3-Point Molly” Rollercoaster

You play the Pass Line, then make Come bets until you have 3 numbers working, taking max odds on all of them.

• The Simulation: This creates extreme volatility. You might lose $300 in ten minutes during a “choppy” table.
• The Upside: However, if the simulator hits a “Hot Shooter” (rolling 20+ times), the graph spikes vertically. This strategy has a high Max Drawdown, meaning you need a large bankroll to survive the dips waiting for that one lucky streak.

Example 3: The “Dark Side” (Don’t Pass)

You bet against the shooter. It is mathematically superior (slightly lower house edge) but socially unpopular.

• The Simulation: You will notice a smoother graph compared to the 3-Point Molly. Since you win when the table sevens-out (which happens often), “Dark Side” players often have a higher Survival Rate in short sessions, though big winning spikes are rarer.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)