Keno offers some of the largest jackpots in the casino, but it also carries some of the widest house edges — ranging from under 5% on certain online games to over 25% on lounge Keno. The difference comes down to the paytable.
Our Keno Payout Analyzer lets you input the specific payouts of the game you are playing and instantly calculates the Return to Player (RTP) and House Edge. It supports Pick 4 through Pick 10 and shows a full probability breakdown for every match count, so you can see exactly which payouts drive the game’s value.
Keno Payout Analyzer
RTP Calculator| Match | Probability | Payout | EV Contribution | % of RTP |
|---|
P(match k out of n picks) = C(n,k) × C(80−n, 20−k) / C(80,20)
Where: Pool = 80 numbers, Draw = 20, Player picks = n, Matches = k.
C(a,b) = a! / (b! × (a−b)!) — the binomial coefficient.
RTP = Σ [P(k) × Payout(k)] / Bet × 100%
How to Use the Keno Payout Analyzer
- Select Pick Size: Choose how many numbers the game allows you to pick (Pick 4 through Pick 10). The calculator generates the correct number of payout fields and loads exact probabilities for that pick size.
- Enter Your Bet: The standard wager per round (e.g., $1).
- Enter the Payouts: Look at the paytable on your machine or game screen. Enter the payout for each match count (0 through your pick size). In Pick 10, catching 0 numbers often pays a small amount — do not skip this field.
- Calculate: The tool displays:
- RTP: The percentage of each dollar the game returns over the long run. Higher is better.
- House Edge: 100% minus RTP — what the casino keeps.
- Rating: Color-coded from Excellent (96%+) to Terrible (<70%).
- Breakdown Table: For each match count: probability, payout, expected value contribution, and percentage of total RTP. This shows which catches actually “make” the paytable good or bad.
If the calculated RTP exceeds 100%, the tool warns you to double-check your payout entries.
The Formula
Keno is a classic sampling without replacement problem. From a pool of 80 numbers, 20 are drawn. You pick n numbers. The probability of matching exactly k of your picks is given by the hypergeometric distribution:
P(match k) = C(n, k) × C(80 − n, 20 − k) / C(80, 20)
Where C(a, b) is the binomial coefficient: a! / (b! × (a − b)!).
RTP = [Σ P(k) × Payout(k)] / Bet × 100%
The calculator uses exact hypergeometric values computed to 10 decimal places. All probability arrays are verified to sum to 1.000000.
How Paytables Affect RTP
In Keno, the probabilities are fixed by math — you cannot change the chance of matching 6 out of 10. The only variable the casino controls is the payout for each match count. A casino that pays $25 for matching 6 offers a much better game than one paying $18 for the same result.
The breakdown table in the results makes this concrete. You will often find that the mid-range matches (5, 6, 7 in a Pick 10 game) contribute the most to total RTP, because they balance reasonable probability with meaningful payouts. The jackpot (matching all 10) is exciting but so rare (~1 in 8.9 million) that it barely moves the RTP needle.
This is why two Keno machines sitting next to each other can have wildly different house edges — one might return 92% while the other returns 72%.
Real-World Examples (Pick 10, $1 Bet)
Example 1: Tight Lounge Keno (Poor Value)
| Match | Payout |
|---|---|
| 0 | $2 |
| 1-4 | $0 |
| 5 | $2 |
| 6 | $18 |
| 7 | $80 |
| 8 | $800 |
| 9 | $6,000 |
| 10 | $25,000 |
Result: RTP ≈ 73.6%, House Edge ≈ 26.4%. Rating: Terrible. This is typical of lounge Keno in land-based casinos. The casino keeps more than a quarter of every dollar wagered.
Example 2: Competitive Online Keno (Fair Value)
| Match | Payout |
|---|---|
| 0 | $5 |
| 1-4 | $0 |
| 5 | $5 |
| 6 | $25 |
| 7 | $150 |
| 8 | $1,000 |
| 9 | $10,000 |
| 10 | $50,000 |
Result: RTP ≈ 92.6%, House Edge ≈ 7.4%. Rating: Fair. Comparable to many slot machines. The key difference from Example 1: higher payouts at Match 5-7, where the probability is high enough to matter.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a good RTP for Keno?
In land-based casinos, Keno RTP is often 65–75% (lounge and live Keno are usually the worst bets in the building). Online and video Keno typically offers 85–95%. As a rough guide: below 80% is poor, 85–92% is fair, and above 92% is good for Keno. Use the calculator to check before you play.
Why does the calculator support multiple pick sizes?
The hypergeometric probabilities change with every pick size. Pick 5 has completely different match probabilities than Pick 10. Each pick size needs its own probability array for the RTP calculation to be correct.
Does picking specific numbers change the odds?
No. Keno uses a Random Number Generator (or physical ball draw). The probability of drawing 1-2-3-4-5 is exactly the same as drawing 14-28-55-67-80. Patterns, hot numbers, and cold numbers have no mathematical effect. The only way to improve your expected return is to find a better paytable.
Why does catching 0 numbers sometimes pay?
In Pick 10 Keno, missing all 10 numbers is quite rare — it happens about 1 in 22 draws (probability ≈ 4.58%). Because it is relatively uncommon, many paytables award a small payout (typically 2x to 5x the bet) for a “total miss.”
What does the breakdown table show?
For each match count, it shows: the exact probability (from the hypergeometric distribution), the payout you entered, the expected value contribution (probability × payout), and that contribution as a percentage of total RTP. This lets you see which match results actually drive the game’s value — usually the mid-range catches, not the jackpot.