Plinko Calculator & Simulator: Odds, RTP and Paytable EV

Plinko combines a fixed slot distribution with a configurable multiplier table. The probability side can be calculated exactly from the number of rows. Expected value and RTP require the complete set of multipliers assigned to those slots. This calculator separates those tasks. It calculates standard binomial slot odds, distinguishes one edge from either edge, provides a current Stake maximum-payout reference, evaluates a custom paytable and runs an educational distribution simulation.

What the Four Tool Modes Do

Plinko Slot Probability

In the standard symmetric model, slot k on an n-row board has probability: P(slot k) = C(n,k) ÷ 2ⁿ The coefficient C(n,k) counts how many left-right paths reach that slot. Center slots have many paths; each far edge has only one.

One Edge and Either Edge Are Different Events

For 16 rows:

Use the combined figure only when both edge slots qualify for the same payout or event.

Current Stake Plinko Reference

Stake's published Plinko page currently lists:

• 8 through 16 rows;
• Easy, Medium, Hard and Expert modes;
• 99% RTP;
• 1% house edge;
• a maximum payout up to 10,000x in Expert with 16 rows;
• a 0.1x minimum multiplier in Expert;
• Autobet and Instant Bet features.

The Stake Reference tab reproduces the published maximum-payout table. It deliberately does not invent a complete current paytable where Stake's public page provides only minimum and maximum information.

Source checked July 2026: Stake Plinko game information.

How to Calculate Paytable EV and RTP

For every slot: RTP contribution = slot probability × total-return multiplier Add all contributions: EV = Σ[P(slot k) × multiplier(k)]
RTP = EV × 100%
House edge = 100% − RTP For example, an EV of 0.99 means an average theoretical return of 0.99 units per unit wagered and a 1% house edge. The multiplier must be interpreted as total return. A 0.2x result returns 20% of the stake and loses 80%; a 1x result returns the stake with no profit.

Why Maximum Payout Is Not Expected Value

A common but invalid calculation is: 1. take the average waiting time for a maximum result; 2. multiply that number by the stake; 3. subtract only the maximum payout; 4. call the difference the expected loss. This ignores every return received on all non-maximum outcomes.

How to Read the Simulator

The simulator draws random slot outcomes from the theoretical binomial distribution. It is designed to demonstrate sampling variation. With a small sample:

• the observed chart can look uneven;
• rare edges are often absent;
• center counts can deviate noticeably from their expected values.

With a larger sample, relative frequencies generally move closer to the theoretical distribution. This is the law of large numbers, not a guarantee that every rare slot will appear. The probability of seeing at least one outcome with per-drop probability p over N drops is: P(at least one hit) = 1 − (1 − p)^N The simulator does not reproduce Stake's seed process and cannot predict future results.

RTP vs Variance

RTP and variance answer different questions:

Two paytables can have the same RTP but very different session behavior if one concentrates return in rare outer slots.

Provably Fair Does Not Mean Predictable

Provably fair systems allow players to verify completed outcomes against server seed, client seed and nonce data. Verification can show that the operator did not change a committed result after the fact. It does not:

• remove the house edge;
• make the next slot visible in advance;
• guarantee an edge hit within its average waiting time;
• make a short sample match the theoretical distribution exactly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Responsible gambling notice: Probability and simulation tools explain long-run distributions; they do not predict individual outcomes or create positive expected value. Never wager more than you can afford to lose.