A “$1,000 Bonus!” banner is a headline, not a price. The price lives in the terms: the wagering requirement (also written as playthrough or rollover), what it applies to, which games count, and whether the money can ever leave the casino. This analyzer turns those terms into one number — the expected value of the offer — and, unlike most tools of its kind, it prices the three bonus types differently, because their math genuinely differs.
Bonus EV & Wagering Calculator
Deterministic estimate: assumes you complete the full requirement at the game's average return, ignoring max-bet caps, max-cashout limits and early busts. Sticky value from variance (big-win scenarios) is not captured by this simple model.
What went wrong?
The Core Math: Turnover, Cost, Value
Every analysis on this page reduces to three lines:
The third line is where offers separate. “What you can actually withdraw” is the full bonus for a cashable offer — and something very different for sticky money, which is why the calculator asks for the type before it answers.
Three Bonus Types, Three Different Answers
| Type | Can the bonus itself be withdrawn? | Deterministic EV |
|---|---|---|
| Cashable | Yes, after the requirement is met | Bonus − Cost of Wagering |
| Non-Sticky (Parachute) | Yes, but it only activates if your cash busts first | Bonus − Cost if activated; the offer as a whole is worth at least this, because you can cash out the cash phase and never touch it |
| Sticky (Phantom) | Never — only winnings above it | −Cost of Wagering |
The sticky line deserves the emphasis. Since the amount is stripped at withdrawal, completing the requirement at the game’s average return leaves you, in expectation, exactly where you started minus the wagering cost. A flat formula that adds the bonus to sticky value — common in simpler calculators — overstates the offer by its entire amount. Sticky offers are not automatically worthless: their value lives in variance, the chance a high-volatility game carries your balance far above the stripped amount. But that upside needs a simulation to price, and no deterministic formula honestly captures it — ours tells you so instead of pretending.
Game Contribution: The Multiplier Inside the Multiplier
Wagering terms rarely count all games equally. Slots usually contribute 100%; table games and live dealer often 10–20%, sometimes zero. Contribution divides into your turnover: a $4,000 requirement cleared on a game counted at 10% demands $40,000 of real bets — and the cost scales with the real bets, not the nominal figure. This is how a blackjack player with a 0.5% house edge can face a larger wagering cost than a slots player at 4%: the edge is eight times smaller, the required volume ten times bigger. The calculator’s contribution field does this conversion for you.
Where the Break-Even Line Runs
For a cashable offer wagered on the bonus only at 100% contribution, EV crosses zero when the multiplier equals 1 ÷ house edge:
| Game RTP | Max profitable WR (bonus only) | Max profitable WR (Dep + Bonus, equal parts) |
|---|---|---|
| 96.00% | 25.00× | 12.50× |
| 96.50% | 28.57× | 14.29× |
| 97.00% | 33.33× | 16.67× |
| 98.00% | 50.00× | 25.00× |
| 99.00% | 100.00× | 50.00× |
Read it as a filter: at a typical 96% slot, any cashable offer above 25× on the bonus — or above 12.5× on deposit plus bonus — is mathematically underwater before you spin. The industry-standard 35× and 40× multipliers sit comfortably on the losing side of that line, which is exactly why they are the industry standard.
Worked Examples
Example 1: The “D+B” trap
100% up to $100, 35× requirement, 96% slot. Wagered on the bonus only: $3,500 turnover, $140.00 cost, −$40.00 EV. The same offer wagered on deposit + bonus: $7,000 turnover, $280.00 cost, −$180.00 EV. Identical banner, more than four times the damage — the wagering base is the single most important line in the terms.
Example 2: Sticky money, honest price
$100 sticky offer on a $100 deposit, 20× the bonus, 97% game. Cost: $2,000 × 3% = $60.00. A cashable version of this offer would be worth +$40.00. The sticky version’s deterministic estimate is −$60.00 — the stripped bonus never reaches your pocket, so the formula only sees the cost. Whether volatility is worth paying $60 for is a strategy question, not an arithmetic one.
Example 3: Contribution flips the verdict
$50 cashable offer, 30×, cleared at 99.5% RTP blackjack counted at 10%. Nominal turnover $1,500; real bets $15,000; cost $75.00 — −$25.00 EV despite the near-perfect RTP. The same requirement on a 96% slot at full contribution costs $60.00: still negative, but the “safe” low-edge game was the worse choice here.
Terms That Move the Number (Checklist)
- Wagering base: bonus only vs deposit + bonus — the latter roughly doubles the cost at equal amounts.
- Game contribution: divide the requirement by it before computing anything.
- Max cashout: a cap on withdrawable winnings truncates your upside and cuts real EV below the calculator’s figure.
- Max bet while wagering: limits volatility strategies; breaching it usually voids the winnings entirely.
- Expiry: a large requirement with a short window can be physically impossible at your stakes.
- Excluded games and bet types: spinning an excluded slot completes nothing and can void the offer.
Related Calculators
- Bonus Hunting Planner — Price a whole portfolio of offers at once
- Free Spins EV & Variance Calculator — The same math for spin-based offers
- Promo Calculator: Free Spins & Cashback — Mixed promotions priced together
- Casino Bankroll Management — Sizing your roll for wagering variance